UPDATE: Dream Orb CD changes no longer apply. [link]
Changes to the Dream Weaving Craft Profession coming to Patch 2.6 are slated for the PTS this week.
Faratha has posted the following adjustments:
- Dream Orbs are now only useable by Head, Neck, Shoulder and Cape pieces.
Median and Greater Dream Orb Recipes now have a cooldown. (cooldown time currently unknown).- Some other recipes might also be getting CDs.
- Some Dimension Keys and Weather-Blocker items will be removed from the trainer and instead be sold for plat/credits.
Source: Faratha
Everything is subject to change prior to hitting Live.
What will this mean for those stocking up on artifacts and coruscating ethereal shards right now? What about those looking to buy?
Cooldown on Dream Orbs
Note: Faratha mentioned the Cooldown is for Median and Greater Dream Orbs, so they don’t exist for Lesser Dream Orbs.
We don’t know how long the CD is until this week’s PTS update.We don’t know if Dream Orbs are still RNG stats and if the amount of Dream Orbs per craft has been adjusted thanks to this CD addition.Everything is subject to change prior to hitting Live.
This means that most likely the market will be filled with Lesser Dream Orbs and most players will go for the Lesser Dream Orbs. Those will become the ‘standard’ for Dream Orb augments.
The Median/Greater Dream Orbs provide too much of a risk if the cooldown happens to be 20hrs, or even as long as 4hrs. The vast majority of people will not be willing to pay for the low-supply Greater Dream Orbs (of which you can only create 8 at a time).
Reasons:
Limited supply. With a CD, and only getting 8 Greater Dream Orbs per player who has Dream Weaving profession.The limited supply hurts demand greatly. Nobody wants to end up with END stat on their dps gear and not be able to find anyone who can sell more Greater Dream Orbs to them for another 20hrs or whatever the CD is.Greater premium. Limited supply could possibly mean you’ll get greater prices for them – but demand would be lower due to this premium.
Greater Competition
The addition of a CD might lead to greater competition. Before, a single player in a guild would be able to cover the Dream Orb requirement for all players in that guild (because there was no CD; so only a limitation based on mats).
With a CD, unless you are willing to settle for Lesser Dream Orbs-only, there will probably be a few more people per guild looking to get Dream Weaving to increase supply of the Median/Greater Dream Orbs.
However for the sellers – the fact that there’s a CD will probably allow for higher prices on those 8 Greater Dream Orbs you will be able to create per CD compared to if there was no CD. However, it also means you’re limited to earning plat on only 8 Greater Dream Orbs and 10 Median Dream Orbs per CD.
Overall though, if you level up Dream Weaving you should still find yourself profiting quite well from the initial rush – except now profit will mainly be coming from Lesser Dream Orb demand instead of everyone skipping directly to the Greater Dream Orbs.
This no longer applies as of Dev Faratha’s reversal of the inclusion of CDs to the Dream Orbs here.
RiftGrate 
This is a very good change, otherwise there would be a rush the first few days only and nobody would care about the lessers/median orbs.
Indeed, this certainly gives the various tiers of Dream Orbs more use instead of everyone just going for Greaters. I’m not so sure on the Median Orbs though cause you only get 2 more than the Greaters – although I guess that also depends on the CD on the Median Orbs and whether it is shorter than the Greaters. The Median Orbs could also supplement the low supply of Greaters for some players as well.
Appreciate the post on the updates to Dreamweaving, however I believe your market analysis is incomplete and slightly the mark.
First, I believe you’re overstating the reduction in demand for dream orbs caused by the increased rarity as a result of the addition of a CD. Price will be higher as the supply curve shifts up, but the demand curve will not be affected on the greater orbs.
The demand curve for median/lesser skill orbs may be affected as they are substitute goods, however this is likely a temporary effect.
The demand will indeed be affected by the reduced number of slots needed to be “orbed” although not necessarily proportionately as the benefit of having “perfect” rolls on a limited number of items is increased.
Finally, the increased price will drive more players (or the same players with multiple characters) to level dreamweaving to cash in on dreamweaving CDs. This effect may be the motivation behind this change as Trion is likely to see greater sales of skill slots and crafting skill consumables as more people are leveling the new profession. This will cause the supply curve to be closer to it’s position and make the market demand for lesser/median orbs more temporary.
That could very much be the case. Certainly the inclusion of the CD will increase the demand for the trade skill extension and skill spheres as more players try to cash in. The risk is still there though due to the rng stats that the dream orbs provide. At best you’ll probably see people buy the Lesser Dream Orbs (since they don’t have a CD) as an initial ‘base’ and then dedicate one slot at a time to the Greater Dream Orbs until they get optimal stats from them.
Here is my plan. I have about 30 alts who are all full of artifacts in Bags, Bank and Guild banks. Set my count at about 8000 varied artifacts of all levels. Add to that I bought 70 each of Best in Slot and Tank for Expert when they were under 5 plat (Yes, that was me). Each alt received 7 free skill up top level tokens in recent reward. I also have about 150 ethereal shards.
I see myself putting a lvl 40+ toon on every shard, and levelling up Dreamweaving on each one. They don’t have other crafting skills, so I have spare slots on each one. Once levelled, each one can use the CD, and I would use 1 for myself, and the other 5/6 to sell. I am not very interested in making anything but the top level orb’s unless I run out of shards.
I hear Trophy fish cannot be broken down ? Pity.
I am agonizing over what to do with the artifacts. All prices will skyrocket of course, and many fairly common artifacts will quickly become rare. I don’t think blues are worth breaking – but I am not really sure.
What artifacts are you going to break ?
I’ll be breaking bit by bit so I can benefit from the increase in dream ribbons per artifact given for higher Dream Weaving ‘profession levels’ (i.e. Master, Grandmaster/etc). What rarity artifacts I break depends on how the market responds.
The higher-rarity artifacts don’t scale that well compared to the White artifacts. White artifacts go from 1 to 3 from 0 to 375 Dream Weaving. On the other hand, Relic Artifacts – for instance – go from 50 to 75. You can also sell the rarer artifacts for a lot more so it is ‘fast’ to break the rarer artifacts, but in no ways cost-effective.
I’ll probably end up selling the higher-rarity artifacts that I’ve gotten when they were still cheap for as much as possible, and rely mainly on white artifacts.
White artifacts scale the best, are cheapest and very easy to obtain to break down.
I’ve done my own spreadsheet on how much I am willing to pay for a white artifact (based on how quickly I can get one in the open world, especially with daily Patron Artifact Vials). Then I use how many dream ribbons you gain for each rarity and ‘scaled’ up to determine my personal ‘limit’ on how much I am willing to pay for the other rarity artifacts. If it’s higher, I don’t buy. And when Dream Weaving hits, I’ll probably end up selling those higher-cost-than-what-you-get-in-dream-ribbons artifacts on the AH.
When 2.6 hits – I’ll probably be doing a combination of artifact-selling, dream ribbon-selling, CD-selling for Median and Greater dream orbs and Lesser Dream Orb-selling depending on prices on the AH. If a lot of people start buying up artifacts because they want to quickly level up dream weaving (and perhaps didn’t stock up enough to level up to 370-375), even White Artifacts might increase to a point where it could be more beneficial to sell the artifacts/dream ribbons rather than sell the non-CD dream orbs.
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Also depending on how much people are willing to pay for the CD on Median and Greater Dream Orbs – it might be a good idea to hold off crafting and selling on the AH right from the get-go. If they pay enough, you get tons of plat with zero mat cost to you.
Player trading might also be more profitable – remember, AH takes 5% tax.