Speculation: Time to take a dump?

RIFT TIP Craft Supply Crates Feature Image

It’s speculation corner, this time it’s about the Rift economy:

With the upcoming Auction House changes and edging closer to 3.0 – Is it time to take a dump?

Everything below is pure speculation and the events predicted below may not actually occur. I am not responsible should the items speculated below prove incorrect.

Approaching a New Expansion

We’re approaching 3.0. It’s not tomorrow, not next week and probably not next month (since we still have a 2.8; no 2.9 though [r]), but it’s on the horizon and players are planning ahead for it.

What’s happening?

  • More and more players are beginning to off-load excess stock of mats because they will become more or less useless when 3.0 hits. Players are selling before the inevitable price crash when everything you can craft now becomes replaced by Savant-level recipes and Level 61 greens.
  • More and more players are starting to pull back on progression raiding, spending more time converting currency into mats to sell (such as Infinity Cauldrons with Infinity Stones and Coruscating Ethereal Shards with Empyreal Slayer’s Marks).

What does this mean?

As an increasing amount of players begin to off-load their mats in preparation for 3.0 and hold off on upgrading their gear due to a potential gear reset when 3.0 hits, the supply of mats increases on the Auction House whilst the demand begins to decrease.

Here’s just some examples:

  • Dreaming Stars at 25-30p each (compared to 100-120p);
  • Solidifying Stars at 40-80g each (compared to 3-4p);
  • Infinity Cauldrons at 120-150p each (compared to 200p+);
  • Coruscating Ethereal Shards at 65-90p each (compared to 120p+).

There’s far more examples out there and anyone who regularly sells on the Auction House should have noticed the drops in price over time.

Does it get better?

No. Outside of new crafted gear becoming available (which is unlikely at this stage), things just won’t get better. In fact, they’re about to get a whole lot worse…

Upcoming Auction House Changes

There’s some upcoming auction house changes slated for Patch 2.8 (the last patch prior to 3.0 [r]). We’ve got a nice run-down of all the changes including screenshots of concepts of the changes that you can find here.

Here’s a quick run-down of the major changes that will likely affect prices:

  • Buy Orders are becoming available.
  • Being able to view and fill out other players’ Buy Orders will become possible.
  • Partial Stack selling will become available.
  • Price History information/charts.

Prices will likely drop.

No doubt when the ability to make Buy Orders with the combination of Partial Stack selling comes onto the Auction House, you are going to see a price drop for a variety of items, especially easy-to-obtain mats like plants, wood and ores.

It’s quite simple to predict and here’s why it will happen:

Stack Sizes and Partial Stack Selling

Right now, players are able to sell for a higher cost than the lowest price because of stack sizes.

  • Player A sells 5 listings of 99x Empyrean Planar Dust at 2 plat each.
  • Player B comes along and lists 5 listings of 2x Empyrean Planar Dust at 2 plat 25g each.
  • Player B’s listings sell relatively quickly because a lot more players are interested in smaller stacks for their crafting rather than the 99x stacks that Player A lists.

This keeps prices from falling too much because all the Player Bs out there realise they can sell their items for a higher cost, and sooner, just by providing smaller stacks. They cater to a different market – the consumer, rather than the resellers or large stock purchasers (usually guilds) that Player A caters to.

What happens when you bring in Partial Stack Selling?

Now we’re looking at a different scenario. With Partial Stack Selling:

  • Player A sells 5 listings of 99x Empyrean Planar Dust at 2 plat each with Partial Stack Selling enabled.
  • Player B comes along and realises he has to either undercut Player A’s prices, or wait until 495 Empyrean Planar Dust has been sold before his listings are sold (should he choose to list at a higher price).
  • Player B realises he cannot get any of his listings sold within 48hrs (the max listing time). Therefore he either doesn’t sell anything, or undercuts.
  • Player B needs platinum, so he undercuts Player A’s prices and sells his 10x Empyrean Planar Dust at 1 plat 99g.
  • Player C comes along and realises that he too cannot sell anything within 48hrs unless he undercuts Player A.
  • And so on and so forth.

So now we have a situation where it is not feasible for a player (Player B and C) to sell at a higher price if there is another player (Player A) who lists a large amount of a single item. Undercutting will be far more prevalent under the new Auction House System compared to the old one.

And it’s not just because of the limitations of a 48hr listing…

Increased Supply due to Partial Stack Selling

So this may sound odd – increased supply due to partial stack selling, why?

Here’s why: There are players out there that are only selling for small stacks with few listing bit at a time in order to benefit from higher prices. However, they generally have a lot more mats on hand than they sell at any one time.

With Partial Stack Selling, those players with a whole bunch of 99x stacks of mats can off-load their items without having to worry that their listings will be skipped by the general population who just want to buy in smaller stacks under the old system.

In Essence…

The lower demand and increased supply due to 3.0 coming compounded with the introduction of the new Auction House System is going to see quite the drop in mat prices over the coming weeks, especially in the first week after Patch 2.8 drops.

The market may correct itself over time after the new Auction House System comes along, but there’s no doubt that prices for current mats will continue to drop. When 3.0 hits we’ll see large over-pricing of 3.0 mats; but until then, the Storm Legion mats are just going to get cheaper and cheaper.

Sell now. Things aren’t going to get any better.

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Categories: Archives, Tip of the Day

3 Comments on “Speculation: Time to take a dump?”

  1. June 15, 2014 at 3:36 pm #

    This is reasonable. Only a few months left, after all (5 at the very most?). This summer and fall is the ‘clean up remaining activities and goals’ period, including for crafting.

  2. Riftwalker
    August 2, 2014 at 7:46 pm #

    wont the previous mats also be needed in the new recipes?

    • August 3, 2014 at 12:33 am #

      If we look at Classic to Storm Legion, all the new Grandmaster recipes required new Storm Legion-only materials. Thus if they do the same thing for 3.0, we probably won’t be using 2.0 materials for 3.0 recipes.

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